Covid’s fatal “hangover’ – real time data

There’s also been a dramatic uptick in death claims resulting from cancer, compared to pre-COVID levels, with cancer deaths increasing from just two deaths per month, (recorded by Discovery Group Risk), in 2018, to six deaths per month last year.

The DHMS data also show a decline in people going for cancer screenings during COVID which corresponds to a drop in cancer treatments for all stages of cancer being recorded.

The scheme also saw a 2.75 times higher risk of diabetes development among members who’d recovered from a COVID-19 infection, jumping to five times higher if an individual was hospitalised for treatment, because of COVID-19.

Similar trends were notable for cardiac with the risk of developing cardiac conditions post a COVID-19 infection currently 1.5 times higher, and as much as 3.5 times higher if an individual had been hospitalised during their COVID-19 related illness.

According to Guy Chennells, head of Product at Discovery Employee Benefits, there are three key drivers – all linked to COVID – which are the causes for the increases.

These are ‘long COVID;’ a marked decline in individuals conducting annual health checks and screenings (termed a ‘screening deficit’); and a reduction in individuals exercising regularly.

Says Chennells: “international data suggests that ‘long COVID’ increases the risk of heart attacks and stroke disease because of the heightened risk of blood clotting conditions. This certainly contributes to the greater number of cardiovascular-related claims we’re seeing. However, behaviour change which began during the pandemic is also contributing to these illnesses – our health data shows that generalised health checks declined by as much as 50% during COVID compared to screening levels recorded during 2019.”

Exercise levels dropped by 12% during COVID.

“Encouragingly, though, the exercise rates seem to be almost back to levels seen pre-pandemic,” adds Chennells.

In March 2020, as President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the first hard lock down to contain the coronavirus outbreak, Discovery Group Risk recorded a three-month rolling average of 87 deaths per month.

This figure then spiked at 249 deaths per month by August 2021 during the third wave of the coronavirus outbreak. In the three-month period to July 2022, it had yet to return to pre-COVID levels with 111 deaths per month recorded on average.

This elevated trend holds true for both unnatural and natural deaths with the former trending above levels seen during and before the coronavirus pandemic and the latter having declined markedly since the pandemic, but still not returning to pre-COVID levels.

Unnatural deaths – and crime

“When it comes to unnatural deaths the three key trends that we’re picking up are that suicides are still above the levels observed in our data pre-COVID, after having increased even more during the pandemic, while motor vehicle accidents are presently stabilising back to pre-pandemic levels. Most significantly, however, crime-related deaths have escalated quite dramatically in the past few years,” says Chennells.

The Employee Benefits data reveals that crime-related deaths recorded this year are shockingly 170% higher than those recorded in 2018.

Chennells notes that there is a close relationship between unemployment rates and violent crime.

“The correlation here reveals that unfortunately crime-related deaths have increased in line with the severe economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic which precipitated abrupt declines of output in markets across the globe,” he continues.

Also, the incidence of suicides has been tracking upwards steadily since 2017. Discovery Group Risk’s suicide claims are 135% higher recently than they were in 2017.

“During the pandemic, our data indicates that suicides tended to spike in the periods immediately following the hard lock downs, suggesting a link to the tragic hardships many endured in isolation and with job and income loss,” adds Chennells.

“It’s concerning to note, too, that most suicides, 75% in all, are committed by men. During the spikes recorded after periods of hard lock down, the proportion of suicides from men increased even further to 90% of all suicides recorded.”

He believes that this is most likely because of men being the main breadwinners in the family experiencing unprecedented strain and economic hardships during the hard lock down phases.

Natural Deaths

“As we went through the various waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, almost everything changed for all of us. The question now on everyone’s lips is – have things returned to normal?

“In Group Risk, we always look at age as the primary driver of natural death which follows an obvious upward trend by age,” explains Chennells.

“But if you look at the proportions of deaths coming from the different age groups, since the start of COVID in 2020, natural deaths are increasing more rapidly in the 35 to 50 age-band and interestingly, it’s been decreasing in the over 50s group of late.”

In 2022, 45% of deaths had been recorded among the age group of 35- to 50- year-olds, while in 2019 this figure sat at 40%. For those above the age of 50, the proportion of deaths has dropped from 43% to 37%.

Curiously, says Chennells, the trend is unfolding most predominantly among higher earners and in higher income earning industries, with the average salaries of claimants increasing by 77% from 2017, whereas average salaries of all members with life cover only increased by 20% over the same period.

Effectively this means that claim frequency has increased faster among higher income earners, putting further strain on insurance pricing.

While older members were more susceptible during the pandemic, this does not explain the trend we are seeing today in our 35 to 50 age cohort, says Chennells.

Instead, the data suggests that middle aged members are more fundamentally at risk due to declining health associated with behavioural changes and the ongoing effects of COVID on its survivors.

Anti-vax lobby shouts ‘foul’

DHMS were asked to respond to emotive arguments published in Biznews, that many who received Covid-19 vaccines are suffering serious side-effects. The reporting focus was primarily on innovative mRNA vaccines produced by Pfizer and Moderna, with myocarditis emerging as a growing concern for young males.

DHMS spokesperson, Felicity Hudson said there was extensive evidence-based research of a high standard, that the COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective.

“This has been repeatedly published in multiple global clinical journals. This is further confirmed by our own data and analysis. Currently, more than 80% of adult members of schemes administered by Discovery Health have chosen to be vaccinated, and the data show an excellent safety profile and improved outcomes, (high effectiveness), relative to similar non-vaccinated members.

She said the Discovery Health Intelligence hub showcased several studies to this effect, with the most recent study published by the British Journal of Sports Medicine, advancing the point to even show enhanced protective effects (i.e. reduced hospitalisation) of the (in this instance J&J) vaccine with increased physical activity.